How would you vote? How would you talk to others about climate action? The answers are going to be scary, but if we want to prepare for a realistic future, we have to address optimism bias. How would you act if you knew this was the future? Do you find yourself thinking that it’s probably not going to be that bad? Challenge yourself to think about that worst-case scenario as if it was the most likely. Next time you read about the different scenarios of climate change, stop and examine your thoughts. You can train yourself to combat your optimism bias. But you know what’s more expensive? Having to deal with those scenarios once you are in them. Yes, there’s a chance everything will be wonderful, but you’re not really working with great odds here, are you?Īnd of course, policy and finance play in as well, because planning for worst-case scenarios is expensive. Societies as a whole are prone to thinking that things will turn out better than they will.Īddressing climate change based on best case (or just sort-of-ok-case) scenarios is like booking your wedding venue on your first date. Optimism bias doesn’t just affect the individual. It is also known as unrealistic or comparative optimism”. Part of the issue is optimism bias: A ”cognitive bias that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event. So why aren’t we considering this in our action plans? Why isn’t ‘hope for the best, prepare for the worst’ our global mantra when tackling global climate change and ecosystem collapse? Every time we discover something new, it’s worse than we expected, or it confirms the worst-case scenario of our models. It matters, unfortunately, because the longer you’ve been following the news and development, the stronger you start to see the trend. ![]() How long have you cared about climate change and environmental issues? A couple of years? Five years? A decade? More? ![]() (BWT, you might want a strong cup of coffee for this one.) Let’s talk climate models and optimism bias.
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